Russia is Winning the Battle for the Northern Sea Route

Photo: Steve Wheeler

Argument by Emma Loeber | February 19, 2024

The Arctic has been covered in a massive sheet of ice for at least 5,500 years. Unfortunately, that number might end soon, as scientists estimate that the Arctic could be completely free of its ice sheet by 2035. This would drastically change the landscape of the Arctic both physically and politically. 

Without the blockage of ice in the Arctic Ocean, a new trade route would open up in the north dubbed the Northern Sea Route. It would make transport between Europe, Asia, and Alaska considerably faster than current routes that involve land transport and the Suez Canal. While this might seem like a silver lining in the tragedy of climate change, it presents a question to the world: who will control this new route? The answer should be a cooperative of the Arctic states that control the land bordering the route and parts of the sea. But right now, it seems to be whoever wins military dominance in the region- which is currently Russia.  

The United States is one of only eight nations that hold territory in the Arctic, the others being Canada, Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, and Denmark through Greenland. The new route would pass by all of them. But only one- Russia- has already started posturing itself to take control of the Northern Sea Route when it opens up. 

Russia has been increasing military operations and patrols in the region, building up a fleet of Arctic capable icebreakers (including some nuclear armed ships), and funneling investment into the development of its massive Arctic coastline. Arctic Security expert and Center for Strategic and International Studies fellow Colin Wall even admitted that “The military balance in the Arctic is heavily weighted towards Russia”. The country has been working for years to have dominance in the region not only because of the potential new sea route but because of other economic opportunities in the Arctic such as oil drilling and deep seabed mining. But while Russia has been focused, the US has largely neglected the security implications of the Arctic.  

US foreign policy on the Arctic is on the back burner, and military readiness in the region is underfunded and lacking. The US has 2 icebreaker ships to Russia’s 50, zero deep sea ports to Russia’s 16, and only 6 underfunded Arctic military bases. Russia, on the other hand, has more bases in the Arctic than all of NATO combined. Part of the reason for Russia’s dominance over the US in the region is because of America’s stagnant evaluation of the importance of the Arctic. 

The US needs to change its view of the Arctic from a domestic area limited to resource extraction and environmental research to an important geopolitical arena. This would mean stepping up efforts to work with the other Arctic states on the security of the region and increasing investment in order to ensure that Russia does not have complete control over the region in 2035 as the new sea route opens. Notably, although US military domination in the Arctic over Russia would be a valuable tool, it is not the entire solution to the problem of the Northern Sea Route. The US must use that dominance to maintain peace in the region and to ensure that all of the Arctic states have a say in the navigability of the new route.  

The US and the other Arctic states are a part of the Arctic Council, which was founded in 1996 as a forum for the states to cooperate on environmental research in the area. But it has little ability in terms of producing policy or enticing the states to work together on issues of security. And regardless, the Council has been non-functional since Russia invaded Ukraine. And even before that, the US was the only member not to have an ambassador representing it on the council, showing its neglect of the need for diplomatic cooperation regarding Arctic security and governance.  

The US needs to move past that neglect. Along with reducing Russia’s stronghold on Arctic military dominance, it should seek to create a multilateral institution or treaty for the Arctic states to agree on a method of control over the Northern Sea Route in advance of its opening in order to prevent conflict and disarray once it does. But the US will have little power to create this dialogue if Russia remains the dominant power in the region. Arctic security needs to be catapulted to the forefront of US foreign policy priorities in the coming years.