Demographic Disaster: Myanmar’s Missing Middle Class
Argument by: Helen Lee | January 13, 2025
Facing genocide, COVID-19, a coup, rampant poverty, and a category five hurricane, the state of Myanmar is fighting for any semblance of security. The shift to instability was a sudden change from 2011, when Myanmar was driven by a strong middle-class and labeled one of the fastest emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region. Since the 2019 governmental ethnic cleansing campaign and the quick succession of the crises mentioned above during the past five years, long-term consequences have been further perpetuated by demographic disaster: the dissolution of Myanmar’s middle class.
Modernizing Myanmar
From 2011 to 2019, Myanmar began its transition to democracy, which included economic and political transformations. Western powers predicted Myanmar would become a new democratic foothold in Southeast Asia. As a result, economic sanctions were lifted amid close coordination with the Global West. In line with the trend of economic and political development, the first democratic election was held in 2015.
Myanmar’s pre-2019 growth was a posterchild of modernization theory, a theory which describes the trend of states transitioning to democratic governance as they experience industrialization and economic growth. The three main characteristics of this theory are changes in values and political cultures, growth of civil society, and a strong middle class. However, 2019 was a turning point for the state, introducing the first of many destabilizing events.
Beneath the Conflict
The Myanmar coup of 2021, resulting in Junta leadership, had many devastating impacts on the already dire socioeconomic stability of the state. Immediate impacts of the coup include the mass displacement of civilians and challenges of resource accessibility. Analyses of major crises through Western media contain shock value headlines about conflict – which I am guilty of here – but infrequently address broader measurements of security that have long lasting implications beyond the present conflict. Currently, Myanmar is struggling to systemically respond to human security concerns regarding electricity accessibility, widespread poverty, and drug use.
Access to electricity was increasing during the state’s shift toward democracy, with hopes of universal coverage by 2030. However, universal coverage no longer seems feasible, with electricity outages increasing in frequency and correlating to disarray at the Junta’s governing level. The issue of electricity access is further compounded by poverty rates. From 2017 (when data was last collected) to 2023, poverty has doubled with 49.7% of the population at or below the poverty line. Approximately 76% of Myanmar is below or near subsistence existence, meaning they just have the resources to keep their household alive – nothing more. The top 20% of Myanmar’s earners do not earn enough to meet the standards of the Western middle class. Policy is necessary to invigorate the economy and address these extreme levels of poverty.
Myanmar’s widespread poverty is directly correlated to the worsening drug dependency within the population. Myanmar is the global leader in the production of opium, that has also been growing its domestic demand market which directly competes with the spending households use for “necessities.” Drugs have been a continuous threat to households and have also grown to a state level concern. The drug market, and the organized crime connected to the production and sale of drugs, presents a major threat to economic stability and efforts to mediate the ongoing conflict. However, the nature of the drug trade is cyclical. As human insecurity increases because of the coup and ensuing civil war, displaced households are pushed to rural areas where farming poppy for opium is encouraged and comparatively offers a more stable livelihood. Drugs have been identified globally as a contributor to Myanmar’s instability.
Ultimately, while Myanmar’s insecurity may have been started by the coup, it persists as a direct result of systemic vulnerabilities. Such vulnerabilities can be addressed by a strong middle class, which can buffer shocks to the economy.
Demography is Destiny?
Auguste Comte (1798-1857), referred to as the father of sociology, believed that a country’s population size and composition would determine its future, coining the phrase “demography is destiny.” The belief that a state’s trajectory is defined by the demographic makeup of its population is not a rule, but instead a model that can help project future possibilities. The close relationship between demography and economy is fundamental to state function. Rapid changes to demographic structure can cause long term effects for generations. Depletion of the working class causes a decline in production, which is often reflected in a decline of demand and consumption. The dissolution of Myanmar’s middle class is the contextual background for a dire demographic destiny.
Evisceration of the Bourgeoisie
“No bourgeoisie, no democracy”, but the consequences of not having a middle class truly go beyond democratic indicators. Modernization theory points to the middle class as the driving force of development. Without the middle class there is no stability, security, or potential for development. Myanmar’s middle class has shrunk by 50% in the past three years, forcing the state into a difficult reality in which it lacks the human capital to grow into its former potential. Internal mass migration results in a fluctuating workforce and a decrease in consumerism. Those capable of skilled or semi-skilled work are migrating externally, to states that offer better working conditions and human security; this phenomenon is called “brain drain.” Households have also cut spending on education as a financial coping mechanism to prioritize more pressing needs such as healthcare or food. The long-term implications of sacrificing education will impact generations to come. These migration patterns indicate that there will be no economic market or household security recoveries in the short term.
With no buffer to the shocks of multiple crises in such a brief time, the possibility of reigniting modernization theory and democratization efforts in Myanmar is highly unlikely. It is also unlikely that the state will be able to find lasting stability without major changes to its policy and societal approaches. Retention and resettlement of Myanmar’s population are the biggest foundational challenges that could decide the development path of the nation. The World Inequality Report (2022) put forward the concept that “Inequality is a political choice, not an inevitability,” which we can draw interesting conclusions from. Myanmar’s post-coup political structure removes the choice of a democratic governing body. However, the responsibility of governance to decrease inequality still exists and it falls to the Junta. As the World Bank and other organizations reengage with Myanmar in hopes of renewing development efforts, their priorities must begin with rebuilding security at the individual level. Without strong decisive action from global actors and the Junta to address such extensive insecurity, Myanmar will be remembered for the evisceration of its middle class.